The former President Donald Trump's influence seemed to falter in Virginia during the recent primary elections. Trump had shown support for retired Navy SEAL and state senator, John McGuire, who was competing against incumbent Bob Good. Good had previously shown support for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primary, which seemingly led to Trump's decision to back his opponent. Both candidates sought Trump's endorsement, even attending his trial in New York related to hush money allegations. As of Wednesday morning, McGuire held a mere 309-vote lead, with the race still too close to call.
This was an unexpected outcome, especially given the support McGuire received not only from Trump but also from Kevin McCarthy, former House Speaker. McCarthy's political action committee donated $10,000 to McGuire's campaign, seemingly as a reprisal for Good's role in removing McCarthy as speaker.
Despite this, Good seemed an ideal candidate for the MAGA cause, with his conservative stance and history of challenging Republican leadership. However, his support for DeSantis and a leaked private conversation where he suggested Trump might lose to Biden seemed to have turned Trump against him.
The close race between Good and McGuire indicates that Trump's influence may not always guarantee a win for his chosen candidates. It also suggests that voters appreciate Good's consistent challenge to Republican leadership. If Good wins the primary, he is expected to retain the House seat for Republicans in the November elections.
However, a win for Good could spell trouble for Trump. Good has shown a commitment to traditional conservative values, including fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets. He has voted against Republican spending bills in the past and may not align with Trump's fiscal policies.
In contrast, other Republicans who once opposed debt ceiling increases now vote in favor of them, seemingly protected from criticism by their loyalty to Trump. However, Good's close primary race suggests there's still a constituency for Republicans who prioritize fiscal values over party loyalty.
If Good wins in Virginia, it could provide him with significant leverage against Trump in a potential future administration. He could argue that the voters in Virginia's 5th district chose him over Trump's endorsed candidate.